Winter Weather Advisories Ice Storm Warning Continue In Effect
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Winter Weather Advisories
Ice Storm Warning Continue In Effect
Nothing has changed overnight regarding the state of advisories and warnings that are up for various areas. Winter Weather Advisories cover most of the geography from Maryland Northeast to Southern New England both coast and inland. Ice storm warnings are effect for counties in Pennsylvania away from the Philadelphia and in New York for areas north west of NYC. Ice Storm Warnings are also posted for the Northwestern Counties of New Jersey.
We are in wait and see mode for most of today as precipitation loads up to the west. There is some lead moisture that is running out ahead of the main system which will arrive tonight. In the meantime we have lots of clouds around as evident on the satellite picture.
Regional radar shows rain offshore moving out to the east. To the west scattered areas of snow are showing up in Pennsylvania with a few heavier snow bands in the west. Movement is to the northeast and most of this passes northwest of the forecast area.
Late today and tonight is when the radar should load up. The temperatures aloft will be warm enough to eliminate snow and probably even sleet so it boils down to how low do temperatures stay below freezing. This is tough in an environment where we have considerable snow cover and coming out of a very cold air mass leaving surfaces cold.
So we follow the 32 degree line all day long as that will be front and center Inland the freezing line takes a long time to move northward and that is where we are likely to see an accretion of ice. Northeast Pennsylvania to Northwest New Jersey northeastward to the Catskills looks to be the area of maximum ice accretion forecast of up to a third of an inch.
Precipitation starts to arrive this afternoon in Pennsylvania and Maryland but it takes a track where it passes north and west of coastal areas. This is due to the storm taking a mostly inland track and that deflects the precipitation to the northwest of the low center. The loop below of the NAM model startts at 1pm today and takes us to 7am Tuesday so you can follow along the start and finish of precipitation.
Models usually do not handle low level cold air that well especially when there is snow cover so we watch. Hopefully the lower atmosphere warms up a bit faster and it makes ice less of an issue. This storm exits Tuesday morning and weather conditions improve afterwards.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.