Winter Storm Warnings NE Pa, NW New Jersey
Catskills Most of the Hudson Valley Connecticut
Winter Storm Warnings are posted for a large portion of the interior Northeast from Northeast Pennsylvania to interior Southern and Central New England. Winter Weather Advisories are up for areas closer to the coast. There will probably be adjustments to this for those along the immediate coast around NYC and Long Island. They will likely come later today or tonight.
As for accumulations they will be driven by 2 factors. Elevation will be key for areas that wind up with higher amounts. Mountains will beat valleys in this case so you if you are east of the Hudson or in the Connecticut River Valley you will see less. If you are in the Catskills or Bershires you will see more. The second driver will be the rate of snowfall. Given the time of year accumulating snow in the daytime is a difficult proposition unless it is snowing at rates exceeding 1 inch an hour, in which case you could see snow accumulating on surfaces other than colder ones so we will be watching for that. The areas along the coast have a chance for some upside given the potential track wobbles of this storm system. Expect more changes and adjustments to the forecast going forward.
Not much is going to be happening today other than rain and perhaps some wet snow mixed inland. We see the precipitation on the radar this morning along the coast and it is a but underwhelming at the moment. Low pressure is forming along the North Carolina coast and it will start the ball rolling as it moves east and then later northeast.
During tonight the storm will begin to strengthen and a strong upper low tracks across Southern Pennsylvania and across Southern New Jersey. Rain will change over to moderate to heavy snow across Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills and then spread east and south overnight into New England as well as southward toward the coast. Areas along the immediate coast will turn to snow mid to late morning which means that accumulations likely hold off until late afternoon. The low reaches Southeastern New England and then drifts southward before turning eastward Tuesday night and snow ends from west to east overnight. Weather conditons will improve Wednesday. We should also point out that we have Coastal Flood Advisories up for areas around Long Island and Coastal Southern New England for today into Tuesday. Also we have High Wind Warnings for Southeastern New England Tuesday and we could see Wind Advisories along the immediate coast where winds will gust to 30 to 40 mph at least. Gusty winds will develop Tuesday and last into Wednesday both along the coast and inland. Temperatures will settle in the 40s today and then during tonight and Tuesday most temperatures will be in the low to middle 30s. Intensity of snowfall could knock off a degree or two on temperatures.
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