Windy Cold Overnight Friday. Western Storm Approaches Sunday Snow Ice Risks Grow
Thanksgiving day is winding down now but the winds certainly remain brisk and gusty from the northwest at over 30 mph this evening. With a developing storm to the east and high pressure in Eastern Canada only slowly building in, we will see winds easing very slowly and it will likely still be a bit on the breezy side right into Saturday morning. Skies may try and clear tonight but we still have patchy leftover clouds to work through. Temperatures overnight will likely bottom mostly in the low to mid 30s with 20s in colder inland spots. Regional and local radars have gone silent for now.
Friday looks like a nicer day with more sunshine, fewer clouds but still with a gusty wind. Highs will reach into the lower and middle 40s. and the drop to the 20s to near 30 by Saturday morning. Cold air especially aloft is bleeding southward from Southeastern Canada and it is setting us up for a meeting with a storm system now in the west and forecast to move eastward to the lower Great Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley by Sunday. Saturday look for sunshine to give way to arriving clouds with highs mostly in the 30s to near 40.
The blocking is in place and we have two rounds of precipitation to get through. The first comes on Sunday and models continues to show the blocking pattern being stronger. This creates a colder atmosphere over our area from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England with the odds of snow going up. We think for most of the area we start as snow Sunday morning and then change to sleet and rain from south to north. Certainly a coating to a couple of inches seems likely on this front end and there is the risk for some upside here if we wind up with an even stronger block and a colder profile of the atmosphere on Sunday.
Round two comes later Sunday night and on Monday as the upper air storm swings around to the coast and low pressure develops just offshore. This comes as cold air collapses southeastward Monday and we see the reverse with rain changing over to snow. Some of the weather models like the European have been rather aggressive with snow amounts of Monday producing an inch and a half or more of liquid. It is hard to say exactly how that part plays out and we are inclined to wait a bit longer for more information on this half of the system. We can elaborate more on this Friday.
Joe’s early call snow forecast map is up for Patreon members.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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