Weather Models Downgrade Snow Threat

Weather Models Downgrade Snow Threat


For many days beginning last weekend weather models were advertising possibilities along the east coast. And for many days I stood skeptical and took a strong stand against it all for a number of reasons. This has been going on all winter with models showing major storms only to back away. The only exception was the Blizzard 2016 back in January. All the systems evolved in pretty much the same way except that was the only time the upper lined up to create an intense storm close enough to the coast. I stood against it until 3 runs of the European in a row convinced me on Wednesday morning that something was going to happen. Of course right after that the rug began to get pulled out starting with the NAM model and going from there. It appears at this point that anything we get out of this is going to be minimal. National Weather Service snowfall forecasts are too high even though they lowered. Only the European and Canadian models this morning are showing snows of up to a few inches, and frankly I am highly doubtful at this point about that.

Weather Models Downgrade Snow Threat

Satellite Loop

The satellite loop shows what is happening. You can see three distinct areas of clouds with one approaching the east coast. A second flare up of storms in the western Gulf and a third twist of clouds over the upper Midwest. This illustrates the problem that has been happening all along. All this energy is running around and each one impacts the other. Models time things out differently every run. There is still a fourth disturbance in Canada that is going to get involved with this on Sunday and instead of lifting all this up, it winds up kicking it out!

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Radar is showing some precipitation to the south moving across Northern Virginia and touching Southern Pennsylvania. That first area should stay south of us though clouds will move in to Southern areas of Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey with rain or a few wet snowflakes getting close to those areas, at least aloft later today and tonight.

Weather Models Downgrade Snow Threat

Radar Loop

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Weather Models Downgrade Snow Threat

Local Radar Loops

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It looks to me like southern areas could see some spotty light precipitation tonight and Sunday, gradually spreading northeastward but Im thinking that whatever comes up will be mostly light rain, maybe mixing with some wet snow late Sunday into Sunday evening. Little accumulation is forecast for most areas except maybe a coating to an inch in one or two odd areas along the coast…if that ! I’m inclined to believe we get little or nothing out of this and given that temperatures are going to be warmer with the absence of major storm developing, this is now much ado about nothing. Temperatures will be mostly in the 40s Sunday.

Monday we will see sunshine with highs in the 40s. Then a nice warmup into the middle of next week with highs reaching the 60s to near 70 by Thursday.

Weather Models Downgrade Snow Threat

Temperature Forecasts Thursday Afternoon

gfs132 Weather Models Downgrade Snow Threat

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley







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