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Weather Models Diverge Long Range

Weather Models Diverge Long Range


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Weather Models Diverge Long Range

With the pattern becoming a bit more active we will being seeing more ups and downs going into next week. After tomorrow’s run back into the 70s, a cold front will put an end to that and the weekend brings with it another trip down and another trip up. Saturday looks good from the standpoint of some sunshine but highs will just be in the 50s as high pressure goes by to our north. Then the next warm front cold front combination moves through Sunday and Monday. That is pretty much the easy part of the forecast. Once the front passes through Monday it will stall to our south and weak wave will develop on the front and bring a chilly rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The GFS shows this playing out in a fairly straight forward way. The other models have a weaker look to all this. Either way it will be warm Monday with highs in the 70s and chilly Tuesday with highs again just in the 50s and it may be in the upper 40s and lower 50s if it does rain all day.

WEATHER MODELS GFS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

warm november

Models a few days ago had a much stronger system and a much colder look for Tuesday and Wednesday even implying some snow in upstate NY and New England but the upper air system swinging east is now much weaker and it looks like cold dry air just basically overwhelms and the rest of the week would be cold and dry

weather models

The flow across the country on the GFS flattens out and just basically goes west to east. This would suggest chilly weather Wednesday and Thursday followed by some moderation on  Friday into the weekend. The European has a much different look to it with a strong vortex in Canada bleeding cold air into the Eastern US and keeping it chilly through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

weather models

Either model solution would mean mostly dry weather so it will be a matter of temperatures being near or slightly above average in the long range on the GFS or near to below average on the European. No big storms are indicated for the East in either case.

 

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