Weather Forecast Update
WEATHER FORECAST UPDATE
SHOWERS DIMINISHING
NO FORECAST CHANGES FOR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME
Satellite loops and latest radars are showing the last of the showers diminishing as they lift to the northeast. Once we get past midnight shower activity should disappear for the most part and we will spend the rest of the night in leftover clouds with temperatures in the low to mid 40s in most places.
Friday look for cloudy to partly sunny conditions and there is the chance for a passing shower or 2. Highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Then we turn to Saturday. Late afternoon model runs have done some shifting around with the Euro Model, Canadian RGEM, & NAM model shifting further south and shifting the concetration of any wet snow Saturday further south in to Central and Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. The GFS model shifted slightly south but was pretty much consistent with its prior runs. Im not changing my original snowfall forecast at this time. I want to see if that southern shift is a trend or just a hiccup. Oddly the southern shift now takes us back to original longer term model solutions.
Weather Forecast Update LATE AFTERNOON NAM MODEL
As stong as this upper air system is, there is so much going on in the upper flow to the north that it is preventing the surface low from strengthening much. The result continues to be a narrow and of precipitation and and even smaller band of heavy wet snow inside that band. The late afternoon NAM for example favors heavy wet snow for Southeastern and Eastern Pennsylvania and much less if any at all everywhere else. You can see how tight everything is on this surface map for late Saturday afternoon. Spring systems take on a more convective nature as we have discussed previously meaning that some spots especially in elevation could get a solid shot of wet snow, while other areas not that far away get much less. We should be able to resolve this Friday although I have a feeling we may have to wait to actually see the signature on the radar Saturday to determine how this finally plays out. Confidence in the forecast remains low.
Weather Forecast Update NAM SURFACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
Regardless Saturday’s highs will be in the 30s to some lower 40s. Sunday will be partly sunny and very cold with highs just into the 40s. A warmup begins Monday with highs in the 50s and we should see 60s on Tuesday although it will come with some showers.
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