Flash Flood Watches are up and cover much of Northern and Central New Jersey away from the coast. Radars are very active across Pennsylvania right now and these downpours will be moving east and northeast. The areas will be moving slowly so there should be enough to produce at least a 1 to 2 inch rainfall across much of the watch area.  Models as has been so typical for the last number of months have shaved back rainfall along the coast. Given the convective nature of what is coming I don’t want to necessarily discount rainfall amounts near the coast. So in general a 1 to 2 inch rainfall is forecast.gfs48 nam48These are the latest model views of the rainfall totals forecast through Saturday morning. They usually are not good at picking up the locally higher amounts that could fall in a situation like this. We saw 6 inch rainfall amounts yesterday though very isolated as one of the downpours sat in one spot for awhile That could happen in this case.

Some downpours are already in Eastern Pennsylvania this evening. They should be done by early to mid morning from west to east. There is also the risk for thunderstorms to turn severe though I think the emphasis here is more on rain than on wind.