Tropical Weather Forecast: 2 Systems Still Have Potential

Tropical Weather Forecast: 2 Systems Still Have Potential For Development

We continue to watch 2 weather systems in the tropical weather forecast. One system is now over the Leeward Islands and is moving west northwestward. Over this coming weekend it will eventually find itself north of Puerto Rico and eventually it will head toward the Bahamas early next week. The second is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula and is destined for the Western Gulf of Mexico.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

Looking at the satellite loop both systems are showing some curvature which is indicating that there may be some sort of mid level circulation with both of them With regards to the system heading into the Western Gulf of Mexico, the waters remain warm there as there has not been a major Canadian cold front that has penetrated the Gulf waters. Usually when that happens it tends to mark an end to development potential. This season has seen very little activity there on the whole so the development here is a long shot particularly given that a cold front will be approaching the Texas coast and this may wind up creating hostile conditions in a day or two anyway.

The system in the Atlantic has a better chance as it heads toward the still warm Atlantic waters off the southeast coast of the United States. Wind shear conditions appear to be favorable for development at least into early next week before conditions become more hostile there as well. The upper air flow will not favor it to move up the east cast as westerly winds north of 30 degrees north may eventually either wipe the system out or carry it away to the northeast. There will be low pressure that will try to form off North Carolina early next week underneath a strong high to the north.  Moisture from this will be limited as has been the case for months with most systems in this position. The onshore flow might create cloud issues here Tuesday and Wednesday.

We will continue to monitor this over the next few days.

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