Tropical Storm Warnings Puerto Rico Virgin Islands Karen Tropical Storm Watch Bermuda Jerry
We will begin this morning with Tropical Storm Karen which is looking completely disorganized this morning and barely hanging on as a tropical storm. Nonetheless Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch is up for the British Virgin Islands. Karen consists of a cluster of thunderstorms with the center located on the northeastern side of the convection. Karen is located about 290 miles south of St Croix or a little over 300 miles south southwest of Puerto Rico. Highest winds are just 40 mph.
Assuming Karen holds together, we will see heavy rains move over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday as Karen heads northward. Once Karen moves to the north of those islands, conditions will become at the very least less unfavorable and may actually turn favorable for strengthening into the longer term. A strong upper high building in the Western Atlantic will likely turn Karen westward in the long range.
Tropical Storm Watch is posted for Bermuda as Tropical Storm Jerry continues to inch closer to Bermuda. Jerry is located 350 miles south southwest of Bermuda and headed north northwest at 9 mph. Max winds are 65 mph. Jerry will move slowly northward and turn northeastward on Tuesday. Jerry is not forecast to accelerate northeastward until Wednesday so we look for the potential for tropical storm conditions to develop over Bermuda later Tuesday and last into early Wednesday.
You can see Jerry above on the tight satellite view below and on the wider view above with Tropical Storm Karen which is 900 miles to the south. Upper air winds from the west have been strong over Jerry though they may relax a bit tonight into Tuesday. There is a chance Jerry could strengthen a bit as the next upper trough moving through the Northeast gives Jerry a little bit of non tropical juice to work with. The upper flow from Jerry has been impacting Karen but once Jerry moves away to the northeast on Wednesday, it could improve the upper air set up over Karen.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY
We aren’t done here with the tropical Atlantic as a third system has developed well to the east. Tropical Depression 13 is on the lower right of the wide satellite picture below. This system should become a tropical storm sometime today as it heads to the west.
Longer term it would appear that this system will make it about half way across before turning northwest and northward in the longer term over the central Atlantic. Weather models have been rather consistent on this idea for many days.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.