tropical storm nicole

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE COULD THREATEN BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE COULD THREATEN BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE COULD THREATEN BERMUDA

Afternoon satellite pictures show Tropcal Storm Nicole has gotten better organized even though some shearing continues. The shearing has diminished somewhat and is forecast to continue to decrease. This increases the probability that Tropical Storm Nicole will regain hurricane status on Monday.

The wide water vapor imagery shows Tropical Storm Nicole set almost right in the middle of the picture. There is a weather front to the northeast of it that is dying out. The impact from Post Tropical Cyclone Matthew is diminishing as well.

...NICOLE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
MONDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SOON...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 65.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 65.3 West. Nicole is
nearly stationary.  A slow northward motion should commence soon,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane
on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells associated with Nicole and Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days.
These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents.  Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for additional information.

tropical storm nicole

The GFS and European both strengthen Tropical Storm Nicole to a Hurricane and take it near Bermuda in about 4 days. Beyond that a number of solutions exist including one that takes Nicole as a hurricane over the Canadian Maritime Provinces next week. No other tropical systems are in the cards at the moment and the tropics look to be quiet at least this week.

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