Tropical Storm Joaquin Nears Hurricane Strength, Hurricane Watch Central Bahamas

Tropical Storm Joaquin continues to become better organized as the center appears now to be under the area of main convection. Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for additional strengthening and Tropical Storm Joaquin will probably be a hurricane by Wednesday morning

..JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 71.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

The upper low to the northeast of Tropical Storm Joaquin continues to pull away to the northeast. The storm is moving over 85 degree plus ocean water. The storm appears to be parked under a narrow upper air anticyclone which will aid intensificaton. Perhaps the models got it right this time that we could see the first hurricane of the season west of 55 degrees west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

The new National Hurricane Center forecast adjusts the track to the west again and after a continued slow drift to the west southwest Tropical Storm Joaquin is forecast to be a hurricane as it begins a general northward course late this week to off the North Carolina coast by Saturday night. Beyond this period is anyones guess as models are all over the place.

nhcprog

 

This is a quote from the National Hurricane Center Discussion.

At this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential
impacts of Joaquin in the United States.  The environmental steering
currents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent
manner by the forecast models.  A wide range of outcomes are
possible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,
Joaquin will have on the United States.

Hurricane Watches are up for the Central Bahamas. At this point it is important to keep in touch with the latest advisories and forecasts on the progress of Tropical Storm Joaquin. I will continue to post model discussions overnight and during the day Wednesday.

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