Joaquin Likely To Produce Noreaster Conditions From Southern New England Southward

Whatever the ultimate course of Hurricane Joaquin (assuming it becomes one later today) it appears that 2 things are certain with regards to our area from New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England and everyone in between.

  1. Drought busting rains are likely on the order of 6 to 10 inches

2. Noreaster conditions will occur along the coast from Southern New England southward to New Jersey.gfs96 gfs102The GFS model takes Joaquin into Virginia Beach from the east and this would be a big hurricane hit for this area. What sets this storm apart for others like this is the surface set up along the east coast. Huge high pressure iwll be building across New England and Eastern Canada to the Western Great Lakes creating an extremely tight pressure gradient from Boston southward. Gales will be everywhere up and down the east coast in this set up. Coastal flooding and severe beach erosion will occur as well as the northeast winds will be blowing for a good 3 days from Thursday into Saturday before the hurricane were to make landfall. Then there is the rain which the model sets up for some overrunning rains Thursday night into Friday night and the again Saturday night and Sunday as the hurricane moves inland. gfs108Ultimately the system will then lift north north east on this model which means rains continue Sunday night into Monday. The rainfalls are enormous over a large area from the Carolinas through New England. These are 6 day cumulative totals.gfsprecipDrought busting rains for sure. We will make up for 3 months of rain in a big hurry. Now on to the Canadian Model which is almost identical to the GFS Model taking the hurricane inland near Virginia Beach.gem96 gem102,jpgIt is remarkable and a bit scary that the 2 global models are almost identical in their solutions except that the Canadian is a little bit faster. Otherwise the outcome would be the same here which would be very strong noreaster conditions with coastal flooding, beach erosion, and drought busting rains.

The upper air structure of both models are also pretty much the same. The GFS actually is even deeper than the Canadian.gem96

gem96These are the 2 solutions offered by the Global models. Now it does not necessarily mean they are correct but both models seem to have locked on the southern part of the trough closing off in a very big way and forcing the hurricane (assuming again that it does become one) to be captured and lifted up and around and then eventually north northeastward.

Now I want to caution everyone that we still need to hear from the European and the question is whether Joaquin will indeed be “captured” by the upper low and forced to rotate around it. Or was the dayside European model indicating that perhaps Joaquin stays as as separate entity and ride around it along or just east of 70 west and winds up further north or even further east in time.

The fact that the 2 global models have locked in like this certainly gives forecasters good reasoning that the threat for the east coast is increasing with these model shifts to the left. I would like to see some confirmation from the European. Remember the European had this idea on Sunday with a hurricane coming inland into Virginia or Chesapeake Bay. It may wind up flipping back to its original solution. If the track is further east it opens up all sorts of possibilities but I still believe that for our area from Southern New England to Southern New Jersey and everyone in between, strong noreaster conditions are likely at the very least.

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