Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forms In Tropical Atlantic Disturbed Weather in Gulf of Mexico
Gonzalo is the earliest 7th named storm on record in the Atlantic basin, beating Gert of 2005 by 2 days per the National Hurricane Center. Gonzalo has become better organized overnight and this morning. It has a solid core though the system is rather small in size. Gales only extend outward about 25 miles from the center making it seem more like a glorified complex of severe thunderstorms. None the less it is a tropical storm and it is actually forecast to become a hurricane over the next day or so.
ABOUT 1205 MI…1935 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO
Gonzalo is rather far south for a tropical storm as it sits just under 10 degrees north latitude. However it will gain a little bit of latitude over the next day or so as it moves on a course slightly north of due west at about 14 mph or so. At this rate Gonzalo will reach the Windward Islands Saturday morning.
What exactly we have when it reaches the Windwards remains to be seen. All of the global models keep this weak and it is for the most part gone once it gets into the Eastern Caribbean. However it should be noted that a few of the hurricane models get this to hurricane strength and keep it there as it moves into the Caribbean. The Hurricane Center does strengthen this to a hurricane and since it is a small system, they do tend to do strange things strength wise. Global models are telling us one thing but reality seems to be telling us something else.
GULF OF MEXICO SATELLITE
Meanwhile closer to home we have disturbed weather that was in the Florida Straits and that has now moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Latest satellite loops show that thunderstorms have gotten a bit more concentrated this morning and the National Hurricane Center has this at a 50% chance of developing in the next 5 days. It is moving west northwestward which will eventually take it toward the NW Gulf Coast.
I put the regional radar that covers the Gulf of Mexico so we can at least monitor what is happening there and for now there is nothing anywhere close to any coastline. Note that today’s NAM model run does pick up on this system as it moves toward the northwest.
it does seem to develop a broad low in the Central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and then takes it to the Texas coast on Friday. We will monitor this closely. Conditions are favorable for some development over the next 48 hours as upper air winds show minimal wind shear.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.