TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA, DEPRESSION GRACE BARELY THERE

Satellite pictures overnight show the area of disturbed weather southeast of Bermuda has become the season’s eighth tropical depression and it is likely to becom a tropical storm later today or tonight. You can see it on the satellite loop here along with what is left of Tropical Storm Grace in the Central Tropical Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ft-animated.gif

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC..INFORMATION

LOCATION…30.9N 61.4W

ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM ESE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.86 INCHES

 

Conditions are marginally favorable for strengthening over the next 2 days or so.  The most likely track is to the north and eventually to the northeast and gone as it winds up getting absorbed by a strong gale center in the north Atlantic so we won’t waste too much time here with this system.

gfs60

The upper flow is responding to a deep digging trough over the Great Lakes while the depression finds itself ahead of that trough in an increasing southwest flow aloft.

Meanwhile Grace hasn’t much left to it other than a few thunderstorms that pop up around a low level circulation. Hostile conditions aloft are about to become more hostile over time.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 47.2W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Grace should be just a remnant low once it hits the evens stronger shear that lies ahead of it.

shearShearing lies along the path of what is left of Grace while tropical depression 8 sits right in the only area where there appears to be light shear in between 2 areas that lie to the west and to the east. With regards to the overall shearing picture in the tropical Atlantic there is a window that appears to open up in about a week to 10 days where shearing across much of the tropical Atlantic appears to be light.

shear240It doesn’t disappear for long but this may be a window for development in this area if you get everything else to come together. That light shear area extends westward into the Bahamas. In the meantime you can expect a fish storm from Tropical Depression 8 and Tropical Storm Grace should be done before the day is out.

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