Tropical Cyclone Potential Next 7 Days
Tropical Cyclone Potential Next 7 Days
2 Possible Areas To Watch
Today’s view of the tropicsl remains very quiet and rather normal for mid June. The Gulf of Mexico is shown to be just about free of any clouds . This should be the case for the next couple of days. Now over the weekend and early next week, pressures are going to be low in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and some models are forecasting low pressure to form there. More in this in just a bit.
Tropical Cyclone Potential Next 7 Days
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Loop
Western Atlantic Satellite Loop
On the wider Western Atlantic view there is a disturbance in the southern Caribbean that is moving westward. No development from this is forecast though some of this moisture may eventually find its way into the Northwest Caribbean and Southwest Gulf of Mexico late this week. The wider view of the Tropical Atlantic show that area to be quiet though there is a frontal boundary northeast of Puerto Rico. No development is expected from this as that area moves northeastward.
The two areas of interest pop up over the weekend. One is low pressure that moves off the Middle Atlantic Coast and drops southwestward to off the Southeast Coast. This is an upper air low that moves off the coast and gets suppressed to the south. Two things that stands against development here is the fact that the system is cold core in nature. The second is time. It would need to sit there for a few days in order to make a transition from a cold core to a warm core system and time might be working against this. The low is forecast to move westward and inland early next week.
Tropical Cyclone Potential Next 7 Days
GFS MODEL SUNDAY MORNING
The second area is low pressure as mentioned early in the Southwest Gulf. Some models are developing in this and some aren’t. The GFS model has been going back and forth on this and I think this has a shot to develop into something early next week. We will continue to monitor this over the next several days.
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