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Thunderstorms Approaching Eastern Pa New Jersey NYC

Thunderstorms Approaching Eastern Pa New Jersey NYC

HRRR MODEL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST 2PM-8PM

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Thunderstorms Approaching Eastern Pa New Jersey NYC

The HRRR model gives a fair representation of what should happen as this cold front approaches the coast later today. Temperatures inland have risen into the 70s. The marine layer remains along the immediate coast east to Long Island and Southern New England. Dewpoints ahead of the front are rising to near 60. It isn’t ideal severe thunderstorm conditions but this is February and it is hard for me to remember a widespread thunderstorm threat during this morning, if it is ever happened certainly in my professional lifetime of nearly 40 years.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST 1PM SURFACE CONDITIONS

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The HRRR model does I believe a really good job of showing what happens to those thunderstorms once they cross over NYC and move east into Long Island. They weaken fairly rapidly which would make complete sense as Long Island is the place where thunderstorms go to die.

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We will keep our eye open for any Severe Thunderstorm watches or warnings. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated the possibility of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being posted but as of 1:30pm Eastern time they have not done so.

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