Some Rain Late Sunday Into Early Monday, Outlook for the Week Ahead
Some Rain Late Sunday Into Early Monday, Outlook for the Week Ahead
The weekend is underway and it starts off on a chilly note. High pressure is building into Upstate NY and New England so the record high temperature pattern is long gone and instead we have a day of something closer to average for this time of year. We still have very dry conditions and wildfire risk continues. Look for lots of sunshine and high reaching the upper 50s to some lower 60s.
Satellite and radar loops are free and clear of clouds and any rain. Tonight high pressure will be overhead. Winds drop off to dead calm and we will see ideal radiational cooling conditions. It should be clear most if not all night with Sunday morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s in most inland locations. Only the warmest urban centers will see lows in the upper 30s to around 40 or so.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
It isn’t exactly breaking news that rain has been virtually non existent over the last 7 weeks or so. Some areas continue to run streaks that have reached 40 days or more without measurable rainfall. Given the dry conditions we can say happily that those long streaks without measurable rainfall will be broken late Sunday into early Monday as a cold front approaches from low pressure in the Great Lakes.
The ridge off the Southeast US coast has not allowed weather fronts from gathering even minute amounts of moisture but this time around we do have some inflow from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. Rain arrives from west to east during the mid afternoon to early evening Sunday and then it is mostly gone by daybreak Monday. We are going to stick with the idea of a quarter to a half inch of rain though we may wind up finishing closer to the lower end of that range.
Sunshine might start off the day Sunday but clouds should quickly increase and then the rains come in and go out. 6 to 8 hours worth of rain seems to be about right with this cold front. After the cold start Sunday morning, temperatures will likely rebound to a range of 60 to 65 in most places. The front moves offshore late Sunday night.
Monday sees a return of some sunshine with highs in the 60s. Then we will see another cool high pressure area build in for Tuesday and Wednesday and temperatures will respond by dropping a few degrees Tuesday and a few more Wednesday. It is likely to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday and mostly low and middle 50s Wednesday for daytime highs. Both days should see a fair amount of sunshine. We do see another front arriving Thursday but models have backed way off on the idea of a robust rain event for Thursday and some even suggest little to no rain at all. That is the issue with a dry weather pattern. Dry begets dry and when it looks like it is going rain a lot, you wind up with far less or none at all. Overall the pattern seems to be changing somewhat as we head into mid month and we may be done with these days of record high temperatures. It is hard to say at this stage whether the pattern will turn wetter but I would think we would see more chances for rain down the road. They may not be anything major but at least it is something.
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