Friday March 20, 2015

If you have been following this all along we know the issues. But now that the snow is underway I continue to hold to the idea that most areas from Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley and Coastal Connecticut will be in the 2 to 5 inch snow band that I have been emphasizing. The new GFS model supports this if I go with the idea that we should take the amounts regarding snow and cut them by at least 1/3 and possibly 1/2.

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f831afcdd085c127fee405ed6ad6f36cThe latest run has a pretty sizable area of precipitation and it is mostly snow except for Southern New Jersey which goes to rain at some point. This forecast has been difficult because of the fact that it is the first day of Spring. Radars are supportive of what the model is showing. If the model is correct with snow all night for Long Island then that area should be able to put down the 2 to 5 inches and since most of that falls at night, it will probably stick to most roadway surfaces. This could start after 4pm.

The GFS snow map above is a literal transaltion of precip at a 10 to 1 ratio which is what we have here with temperatures close to freezing. So whether the forecast busts too low will depend on what happens this afternoon. We will just watch the radar and obs for clues and update as required.

d4732afbbb3d284a29aabbb9c933c7a1ff8558e3fb4889b0fd581808deeb508aOnce this is done, it melts tomorrow with some sunshine returning. Then a cold front comes through and we are back in below normal temperatures with Canadian cold air coming in for later Sunday and the first part of next week. That storm you see off the southeast coast of the US is not coming up here.

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