TUESDAY JUNE 16, 2015 4PM
Tropical Storm Bill is hitting the Texas coast with wind and rain and it has strengthened some as it nears land. The storm will be moving inland soon and the satellite shows that this system has a ton of tropical moisture. This is going to bring considerable rain to northeast Texas where there will be flooding. Storms that usually move inland in Texas are almost never an issue up here down the road. Most of the time the easterly flow at that latitude plus the position of the summer ridge takes this moisture west or northwest forever. However we have a bit of a different set up aloft that is going to probably take that moisture northward and then northeastward and finally east northeastward to the Ohio Valley and then for parts of the Northeast. The European model is showing this very well today as it drives considerable rain here later Sunday into Monday of next week. Of particular concern would be if the rain gets into upstate NY where there has been damaging flooding this week, thanks to persistent thunderstorms.
Hurricane model plots are very consistent here as almost all of them show whatever is left of a low center passing near NYC or just to the south. The implications of this would be considerable thunderstorm activity coupled perhaps with some not tropical energy in the form of another one these warm front cold front combinations we have seen in the last couple of weeks.
The strong westerly flow north of 35N just won’t go away and it is begin anchored by ridges on both coasts. By 96 hours which is Friday evening you can see below that trough in the middle Mississippi Valley anchored by the two ridges..one on each coast. The alley way is open for moisture to shoot up around the western edge of the east coast ridge right into those westerlies taking the rains from Bill eastward toward us.
Not all models are completely on board with this in terms of the specifics. We are still a long way off of course being only Tuesday. But given the pattern it is hard to fight the idea that the rains will get here. The big question is going to be how much of a non tropical weather system is going to be in the picture enhancing some of the rainfall. Remnants of tropical storms can be tricky sometimes to forecast amounts along with other factors. The map below is the 7 day rainfall forecast that was issued this morning by NWS. Updates to come.