SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXTENDED EASTWARD

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXTENDED EASTWARD

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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXTENDED EASTWARD

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has extended the area of “Slight Risk” for severe weather to cover all of New Jersey, New York City, The Western half of Connecticut, all of the Hudson Valley and all of Pennsylvania and much of upstate New York and New England.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXTENDED EASTWARD

storm free

Radar is showing a developing area of showers and Thunderstorms in Western Pennsylvania moving eastward and there are already some strong  cells that have developed along the Pennsylvania  New York State border. These look to be moving along at a decent clip and should arrive here in Eastern Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey sometime during mid afternoon. For now the local radars remain quiet.

storm free

storm free
storm free

storm free All of the short range models have the depiction of the thunderstorm area all wrong this morning so it doesn’t lead to great confidence in what they say for this afternoon. All models weaken storms as they move through this evening. The HRRR model has the probably the least weakest view.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXTENDED EASTWARD HRRR MODEL

hrrr20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXTENDED EASTWARD

Honestly I’m not sure sure they will weaken as indicated. The dynamics are actually supportive for thunderstorms through midnight at least. the atmosphere is very unstable especially from New York City southward, the marine influence is minimal. I think the best approach here is to watch the radar and see how it all plays out. The risk for strong thunderstorms is definitely there.

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