Severe Weather Risk Southern New England Long Island Lower Humidity Tuesday Wednesday
We have a very warm and humid day ahead of us after a slight break in the humidity yesterday. We also have an upper trough that will be swinging across the Northeast late today. This sets us up for the chance for thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center is focused on Southern New England and Long Island where a marginal risk of severe weather exists today. This doesn’t look like anything widespread as the upper features in the Northeast are not overly impressive. The best advice is just keep a glancing eye on the radars. We will likely see a few thunderstorm clusters or small lines that form later today with the chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm in the mix.
Otherwise it is a warm and humid Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The satellite picture this morning shows some patchy clouds around but we have large breaks of clearing as well. It should be quiet into this afternoon as the regional and local radars aren’t showing much at the moment.
Once the upper trough moves though this evening we are looking ahead to a nice change over the next couple of days. Humidity levels will be dropping down and that will make us all feel better. Look for skies to clear tonight with most lows in the 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday will be nice and sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s.
We showed this looping dew point map showing dew points for 2pm each day beginning Tuesday and taking us through the weekend. You will notice 2 rounds of lower dew points with the first of course for tomorrow and Wednesday (though the humidity does hold higher in Eastern New England Tuesday). Then the humidity comes up Thursday and Friday and a cold front will move through Friday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Other than today Friday is the only day we see anything significant.
In a pattern where the northwest flow from Canada is always close by weather fronts will shut off any long duration heat and humidity so we could see a break this weekend with lower dew points. Most of this week we will see highs in the 80s each day. Thursday and Friday hot spots could reach above 90. Then it turns a little cooler and less humid for the weekend. The tropics are quiet for the time being which is what you would expect after 6 named storms in 7 weeks from mid May to early July. We would expect quiet conditions to last for another 10 days to 2 weeks before the more active month of August approaches.
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