Severe Weather Risk Monday Very Low Humidity Tuesday Through Friday

Severe Weather Risk Monday Very Low Humidity Tuesday Through Friday


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Severe Weather Risk Monday Very Low Humidity Tuesday Through Friday

We have a stalled front sitting from the the Hudson Valley south to NYC and that sets up severe weather risk today. Another front is approaching this evening and we have humidity levels rising today though they won’t reach oppressive levels. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the severe weather risk zone for late today into tonight.

The area of risk extends into Upstate NY and Southwestern New England to the north and covers just about all of New Jersey, all of Pennsylvania, south to Maryland and Virginia. Slight risk is indicated from Northeast Virginia northeastward to Northern New Jersey.


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The warm front is producing some scattered thunderstorms this morning in the Hudson Valley to about NYC with a few scattered cells elsewhere. The highest chance for severe weather comes late today as a cold front nears. Temperatures this afternoon across the area will have a wide range.

Upper 70s and lower 80s will be the rule south and west of the frontal boundary while north and east of the boundary highs will only be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. It is south and west of the warm front that we have the highest chance for severe weather.

The risk for thunderstorms will continue into the first part of tonight and then the front moves offshore. We are going to see a rather unusual set up for mid June. What is unusual about it is how far south the jet stream sets up in the Eastern US. This is an usually deep trough that brings upper level westerlies as far south as Northern Florida. This will bring very dry air into the Deep South as well as all of the East. We are talking dew points in  the 30s and 40s in some cases with pleasant afternoon temperatures.

Tuesday should be a partly sunny day with some scattered showers possibly mostly inland. The atmosphere still has some housecleaning to do Tuesday with the upper trough strengthening in the Northeast. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday and Thursday look nice and sunny for the most part with highs in the 70s from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England and as far south as Virginia. Friday will still be nice and sunny and low humidity continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The humidity will come back on Saturday but it should be a brief return as another cold front arrives with late day showers and thunderstorms. Sunday Father’s Day is looking dry for now. We will likely see a tropical system develop in the Western Gulf of Mexico this week and head into the Gulf Coast. The tendency for the jet stream to be northwesterly in the Eastern US likely suppresses the rain to the south.





Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.