SEVERE WEATHER RISK EXPANDED
HOWEVER SHORT RANGE MODELS BACK OFF
We indicated last night looking at the HRRR model and a few others that the support for a severe weather threat appeared stronger and that it would need to be expanded further north. The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service raised Central & Southern New Jersey to a slight risk for severe and expanded the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms a little further to the north in Northeast Pennsylvania and the east to about New York City. The Hudson Valley, Long Island, and Connecticut remain out of the severe weather risk zone though they are at risk for thunderstorms.
Severe Weather Risk Expanded Storm Prediction Center Forecast
The visible satellite loop shows the approaching wave moving across upstate New York and the trailing line of clouds into Western Pennsylvania. Regional radar is picking up activity in that area and some other showers in Northeastern Pennsylvania that are moving to the northeast.
The latest run of the HRRR model however is much less impressed with all this. It has backed off from earlier runs of showing a rather impressive squall line moving through New Jersey and other areas. It does show a few heavier cells developing but not an impressive east west line.
One of the bigger differences from earlier runs is that the HRRR model is showing temperatures a little lower for late this afternoon across New Jersey and even in areas to the east where the prior runs where much slower in bringing the front through.
Other model runs are now even less bullish for severe weather as the RAP Model has the front through even faster and is further south. This would limit any severe weather threat to Southern New Jersey & Southeastern Pennsylvania only.
Earlier frontal passage means less daytime heating. Certainly for areas north and east of New York City this is going to be the case. At this point it is a matter of watching the hourlies and see how the front sets up. Wind direction will be your clue. Once it kicks in to northeast or northwest, the severe weather threat is pretty much over with.
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