HRRR Model Severe Weather Threat
Greatest Threat Across Central New Jersey Tuesday PM
Thunderstorms Also For Hudson Valley & Long Island
Trying to figure out the severe weather threat for Tuesday is a bit difficult. The easy part of the equation is for Central and Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. There it seems pretty obvious since that area will be warm sectored all day and temperatures are going to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s before the cold front comes through. The other areas to the north and east are more difficult to figure. The biggest question is the front itself and all the models have a different perspective on where the front is and what time it passes through. First off overnight we have showers on the radar moving across Northern Pennsylvania. They stand to move across New Jersey, New York City, the Hudson Valley and Long Island between 2am and 6am You can see them on the regional radar below as they move eastward.
The showers are beginning to come into the view of the Philadelphia radar and will soon appear on the New York City radar. Once those showers are done the the HRRR model develops another area over New Jersey by mid morning. The maps below are the forecast radar views for 8am and 11am Tuesday.
HRRR Model Severe Weather Threat Forecast radars 8am & 11 am Tuesday
At this point you can see some showers to the northwest of the New Jersey showers in Northeast Pennsylvania. This seems to be where the line of possible severe thunderstorms develops as the day wears on. At 2pm some strong cells are indicated over the Hudson Valley Moving southeastward.
HRRR Model Severe Weather Threat Forecast Radar 2pm & 5pm Tuesday
By 5pm the HRRR model has a rather strong east west line of storms across Southeastern Pennsylvania through Central New Jersey and at this point the storms have already crossed Long Island. Other weaker cells are over Coastal Conntecticut mainly east of Bridgeport. One of the big differences in this model from some other weather models is that it slows the front down. Take a look at the HRRR model 2pm temperatures. Unlike some of the other models which sink the front faster and further south, by holding it back, it actually warm sectors Long Island and the Hudson Valley. As of 2pm those areas also have temperatures in the 70s.
HRRR Model Severe Weather Threat 2pm Forecast Temperatures
If this model is correct than the area of severe weather would be expanded further north and east. The NAM model lines up very well with this when you compare the 2pm temperature forecast from this model with the HRRR model.
The short range models seem to suggest that severe weather on Tuesday will be more extensive than what some of the other global models suggest. The key will be the wind. Fronts like this normally want to push through faster than forecast. If that is the case it cuts down the daytime heating in the areas north and east of New York City. Those areas need to watch for the wind shift. Once the wind turns northeast and the front is through, the cooler air will put an end to the severe weather threat. The longer that takes to happen, the larger the severe weather threat will be.
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