Rain Wind Saturday Early Sunday
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Rain Wind Saturday Early Sunday
The prospects for the weekend are not looking too good with low pressure moving up the coast. Aside from the usual model battles ranging from a flooding rain and wind event on the NAM model Saturday into Sunday morning to the overcast but little rain except south on the GFS model to something in between on the Euro model, the bottom line is that much of the weekend will be spent in clouds for sure and there will be some rain from later Saturday into Saturday night and then perhaps some showers Sunday afternoon and evening.
Rain Wind Saturday Early Sunday
NAM Model 2am Sunday
Rain Wind Saturday Early Sunday
NAM Rainfall Forecast
The NAM model as we said is the most aggressive so I would view this as a worse case scenario. The surface low slows to a crawl and rain lasts into Sunday morning. In fact the surface low actually intensifies a bit Saturday night and the model actually produces a decent amount of rain. However I would remind everyone that models have consistently underperformed reality for quite awhile. It has been wise to take amounts and cut them in half which would suggest a quarter to a half inch of rain at best.
Rain Wind Saturday Early Sunday
GFS Rainfall Forecast
If you look at the GFS rainfall you would wonder whether there would even be a quarter of an inch. This model shifted south and east overnight and is utterly underwhelming with all this. The European model is sort of a compromise between the two. At this point that is probably the best way to go.
GFS UPPER AIR JET STREAM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
The other issue is Sunday afternoon and evening. The cold upper trough will be overhead which will make for a rather cold unstable atmosphere. This will probably mean showers bubbling up and given the time of year perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Such will be the case into Monday of next week as well.
Meanwhile we still have to get through today and Friday. We should see some breaks of sunshine but also a few late showers with an upper air disturbance going through. Friday looks nice with mostly sunny skies. More on the short range outlook coming up shortly.
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