rain moving

Rain Moving Northward Models Disagree

Rain Moving Northward Models Disagree

 

Rain Moving Northward Models Disagree

Weather models are in complete disagreement this afternoon on the rain moving northward from the Middle Atlantic States. We can say there are no issues for the rest of the day with just clouds increasing. Then for later tonight the big question is how far north and west does the rain get? The HRRR model would argue for rain everywhere from Eastern Pennslylvania to Southern New England arriving tonight and lasting into the first part of Wednesday morning.

RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD HRRR 4AM WEDNESDAY

rain moving

The HRRR model has a wall of rain at 4am. It would suggest everyone gets hit with heavier rain along the coast. The NAM model on the other hand has a complete miss!

RAIN MOVING NORTH BUT NAM KEEPS RAIN OFFSHORE 4AM WEDNESDAY

rain moving

Naturally the GFS model splits the difference between the two and has rain along the coast of New Jersey & Long Island but not much north and west and north of the immediate coast. Right now that is the compromise view of things with this weather system We will just have to watch the radars below and see how well they match up.

SATELLITE LOOP

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REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

storm free

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free

At least for now the rest of the forecast remains unchanged. Once this system moves out more rain is forecast for Thursday as the next wave moves through. That rain could last through Thursday night with leftover showers on Friday. The weekend remains in doubt though Saturday still looks like the best of the three day holiday weekend. Temperatures are going no where today as they hold generally in the 60s with some warmer areas in Central and South Jersey possibly nearing 70. Tonight it will be in the 50s especially with the northeast wind as the low goes by to the east. If clouds break tomorrow afternoon we could see temperatures reach the upper 60s and lower 70s.

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