Memorial Day Rain

Memorial Day Rain

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Sunday Looks Good Memorial Day Rain

Midweek Weather Model Questions

With the arrival of Tropical Depression 2 to the  South Carolina coast, weather models are having some differences in how to handle the tropical moisture going forward. First there is the issue of the actual surface center which weather models are leaving behind along or just offshore. Then there is the issue of the tropical moisture and the rain as a cold front approaches from the northwest and what that does.

STILL GOOD FOR SUNDAY MEMORIAL DAY RAIN GFS SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING

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Before we address Monday Memorial day we can say that other than a pop up shower or thunderstorm this evening inland, our weather will be fine into Sunday evening. Just a few clouds around tonight with lows in the 60s tonightand no worse than partly sunny skies Sunday dayside with highs in the 80s to near 90 inland and 70s to near 80 along south facing shores.

Memorial Day Rain GFS MODEL MONDAY AFTERNOON

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Now for Sunday night and Monday. We have the tropical system on the coast and moisture getting fanned northeastward and enhanced by the approaching front from the west. Weather models are slowing down with every run which put Monday afternoon now into question. In fact the European model and the NAM model want to bring up the remnant low to some degree and actually the European has rain into Southern New Jersey on Tuesday. The problem in these weak steering environments is trying to figure out what happens after upper air steering winds collapse. The GFS and European would take the next night to the north and create an onshore flow again for the middle of next week.

Memorial Day Rain Midweek Questions

GFS VS EURO MODEL THURSDAY

gfs126

euro120 Memorial Day Rain

Now I would caution Euro weather model lovers that the Euro has not been good lately in a number of ways…including overplaying coastal lows over the last few weeks. So I would take its view with a huge grain of salt at this point. For now I think the idea of rain from later Sunday night into early Monday afternoon and then drier and cooler for Tuesday and beyond is the way to go at this point. With rain into Monday afternoon, temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s for highs.

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