hurricane maria

Maria 160 Mph Winds Category 5 Taking Aim On Virgin Islands Puerto Rico

Maria 160 Mph Winds Category 5 Taking Aim On Virgin Islands Puerto Rico

 

 

Maria 160 Mph Winds Category 5

Taking Aim On Virgin Islands Puerto Rico

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.2N 62.8W
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 170 MI…275 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

SATELLITE LOOP

storm free

After moving over the entire island of Dominica last night with the eye moving over virtually every inch of space there, Maria is now back out over the open waters of the Northeast Caribbean and back to category 5 strength. It is now going to pass just south of some of the northern most islands in the Leewards and is taking dead aim on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Conditions favor strengthening so Maria will be a category 5 over the next few days and pass over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as either a strong 4 or a cat 5.

LOOP OF EYE MOVING OVER DOMINICA MARIA CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE

CLICK TO ANIMATE

hurricane maria

 

The loop above was from last night. Watch how the eye just comes in from the southeast and then turns northward to track over the entire island before emerging off the northwest corner. This is much like how Hurricane Irma bounced off each island of the Cuban Keys a few weeks ago, Just amazing

hurricane maria

Hurricane model guidance still remains rather tightly clustered. The pass to Puerto Rico is extremely close. The models have shifted a bit to the north overnight. It seems the eye of Maria may pass far enough north of the Dominican Republic to spare them any issues but that of course is subject to change. Weather models seem to be handling the hurricane pretty well so far.

GFS MODEL FORECAST TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

hurricane maria

GFS & European model both are on the south side of the hurricane models and take Maria right over Puerto Rico. After that it appears that the ridge in the Atlantic weakens as Jose lingers offshore our coastline. This would increase the chances of Maria being an out to sea storm longer term but Jose remains the varaible here since if it moves out to the east instead of looping offshore, the remaining ridge will be strong and push Maria more toward the west.

…POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO…

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.2N 62.8W
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 170 MI…275 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 62.8 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is
forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane
while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
125 miles (205 km). Sustained tropical storm force winds have
recently been reported from Guadeloupe and Antigua.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout
portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this
morning. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder
of the hurricane warning area later today and Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide…

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands…6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico…12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla…4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

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