Long Range Blocking Continues

Long Range Blocking Continues

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In the midst of all the shouting about not having a real spring, apparently we are having a real spring. Today is the 7th straight day of no rain. While it was cold earlier in the week, we have recovered nicely after what was a spectacular weekend. Dry weather continues through Thursday. Monday we see another day of sunshine and temperatures in the 70s everywhere. Temperatures cool off Tuesday and Wednesday after a cold front passes here Tuesday morning with just a few clouds and maybe a shower. That should be it until Friday.

One thing that is strongly evident in the longer term is that Long Range Blocking Continues. Winter weather lovers might be lamenting the fact that this has all come now rather than several months ago but such is life. Long term indicators all point to a strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation with a strong Pacific North America ridge pattern and a negative East Pacific Oscillation!

Long Range Blocking Continues Long Term Weather Indicators

nao Long Range Blocking Continues

Now what does this all mean at this stage of spring? Well for one thing the advertised super warm up advertised by many of the models seems to be in some trouble. Yes there will be the odd warm days of warm temperatures. However the indicators suggest that we will be susceptible to back door cold fronts that will cut any heating off. This is not to say that we are in for unusually cold weather either. There will be stretches of below normal temperatures over the next few weeks when these fronts come through. One running theme in the models is that there are no major storms in the offing. Weather systems coming through seem to lacking a lot of moisture to play with. The first chance for any widespread rain is Friday of this coming week with a cold front approaching.

Long Range Blocking Continues GFS MODEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON 4/22/2016

gfs126 Long Range Blocking Continues

The front stretches a bit allowing for some wave action but everything seems to move along here so once it gets through, the weekend that follows should be fine. The rainfall from this front looks more annoying than excessive. After this there are several other systems indicated through the end of the month and beginning of May. Again nothing here seems to indicated anything unusual. We seem to have entered a quiet period with more nice days than not, and just occasional hits of rain or showers in between air masses.

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