Joaquin Turns Toward the North, Winds 130 mph Category 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Joaquin looks to moving more toward the north northwest now along 75 west judging by the last few pics on the loop. It also appears that the eye is beginning to reform again as the eyewall replacement cycle may have been completed. What that means is that the eye weakens and then rejuvenates itself and reforms as long as other conditions remain the same. If the north motion is confirmed then we could be seeing what the European model has been indicating which is a move north and then a turn northeast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF RUM CAY BAHAMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

 


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

 

 

 

Several things are going on when you look at the satellite loop. First off we have another tropical system to the northeast that it is getting better organized as it moves away to the northeast. You have Hurricane Joaquin. You can also see the clouds and moisture off the southeast US coast moving from south to north. Joaquin is beginning to respond to the east coast trough. The issue for track is that the trough is going to slowly swing east and unless it were to capture the hurricane and force it to rotate north and then northwest, this hurricane will instead be kicked along to the northeast which is what the European has been saying for days. Bear in mind the European overnight track was a little further left and tracked Joaquin inside 70 west before it got to 35 N and then out to sea from there.

Be sure to download my weather app and subscribe to my forecasts. The app is free and the subscription is though the 99 cents a month. The app is free of advertisement and there are no tracking or security issues.

Liked it? Take a second to support joestradamus on Patreon!