Irma Strengthens Winds 140 MPH Category 4

…DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…
…PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.7N 55.0W
ABOUT 450 MI…725 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…943 MB…27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dominica

There are two other systems in the tropics worth noting. Southeast of Irma is a strong tropical wave moving westward. Satellite pictures show this system continues to become better organized and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the next several days as it moves to the west.

Low pressure in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico has developed and showers and thunderstorms have been increasing. Conditions here are marginally conducive for development over the next several days.

There were no important changes in the afternoon run of the GFS. The model shows the hurricane tracking through the Bahamas and near the north coast of Cuba before turning northward into South Florida.

The above graphic is the GFS ensemble members and their solutions. The black line is the average track. The cluster is very tight. Risk grows for Florida as the first landfall. The late day gfs might be a little too far to the left but the bottom line is that the threat is increasing for both the Bahamas and Florida.

EARLIER TODAY JOESTRADAMUS DISCUSSED THE WEATHER MODELS ON IRMA AND ASSESSES THE RISK FOR THE EAST COAST

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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Irma Strengthens Winds 140 MPH Category 4