Hurricane Watch Bermuda
Hurricane Watch Bermuda Tropical Storm Nicole Winds 60 MPH Forecast To Become A Hurricane Tuesday
Looking at both the water vapor loop above and the enhanced satellite picture below where we can see the highest and coldest cloud tops, Tropical Storm Nicole is becoming better organized. The circulation is becoming more circular, and cloud tops are cooling as evidenced by the red area developing below. Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday. A Hurricane Watch is posted for Bermuda.
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 ...NICOLE MOVING NORTHWARD AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 65.5W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Bermuda on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 65.5 West. Nicole is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Tuesday, with a turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday.
The latest GFS model run intensifies Nicole but it also jogs it to the west of Bermuda on this run instead of right overhead. We will see if other models overnight confirm this idea. After it passes Bermuda, it will move northeast and transition over to a very intense extra tropical storm. This could impact the Canadian Maritime Provinces at the end of the week but much depends on a blocking high in the northeast Atlantic and what impact that block may have.
Southwest moving storms in the Atlantic at that latitude are quite unusual but given the state of models lately i would view this with a little skepticism. On the other hand the GFS as handled tropical systems better as a whole lately (which isn’t saying much) and I don’t want to discount the idea. The Atlantic block is shown to be quite strong. We will examine this further later this morning.
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