Hurricane Lee To Turn North, Watches Warnings Likely for Eastern New England, Nova Scotia

Hurricane Lee will begin to turn more toward the north later today and take aim for coastal Eastern New England. Latest models all seem to be tightly clustered on the center landfalling in Eastern Maine or Western Nova Scotia. Regardless of where the landfalling center is, Lee has become a large hurricane in terms of its wind field as gales extend outward more the 250 miles from the center. That means that even though the center could pass far enough offshore from any given point, tropical storm force winds will likley be possible as far west as Eastern Long Island, and of course all along the coast of Southeastern New England northward to Maine.

Both the Gfs and European models show similar tracks. The European model is a little to the west of the GFS but only by a few miles and not enough to make a difference in the outcome. Tropical Storm Watches are likley go to up for Eastern New England and possibly as far south as Eastern Long Island northeastward up the coast to Maine and Nova Scotia and a portion of that coastline will likely see a hurricane watch go up later today or tonight.

Weather conditions will likely deteriorate Friday night from Southeastern New England northward. Models bring the western edge of rain to Eastern Long Island to Central Massachusetts and interior Maine late Friday night and Saturday morning. Lee will be accelerating northward with a brief hook back to the northwest as it nears New England and Nova Scotia Saturday. Lee will be weakening to a minimal hurricane at this point and transition over to a post tropical (non tropical cold core) storm system but that will matter little in terms of what to expect weatherwise. We will be updating this as details change from the National Hurricane Center in the coming days.