HURRICANE LANE NEARING HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
HEAVY RAIN FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE
GUSTY WINDS ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE COAST
WIND SHEAR SLOWLY WEAKENING THE HURRICANE
Hurricane Lane continues to move northwestward and getting ever closer to the Hawaiian Islands. There are however some important developments that are going to impact the outcome to the Hawaiian Islands. So far heavy rains have created flash flooding on the big Island of Hawaii. We have also seen some flash flooding occurring in the neighboring islands to the west of the big island. Winds so far have not been a huge issue as the core of the hurricane is still offshore.
We are beginning to see the increasing upper air winds taking an impact on the strength of the hurricane. The storm has weakened from its peak category 5 strength from yesterday. Weather models continue to show increasing upper air winds over the hurricane which should cause the weakening trend to continue. The hurricane still remains a dangerous storm however and we will continue to see waves of heavy rain as bands of the hurricane continue to sweep northward.
HURRICANE LANE SATELLITE LOOP
The water vapor loop shows the eye of Hurricane Lanes is getting harder to define. Also in the lower left you can see clouds moving eastward which is a result of the increasing westerly winds over the storm and increasing wind shear (winds increasing with height). Shear is the enemy of a hurricane as it rips the structure of the storm apart. Below is the latest advisory on Hurricane Lane from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
…EYE OF LANE PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY 51002 AS THE DANGEROUS
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…949 MB…28.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Maui County…including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
* Hawaii County
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Kauai County…including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 157.5 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward motion
is expected to begin today. A turn toward the west is expected
Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will move over, or dangerously
close to portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, but Lane is expected to remain a
hurricane as it draws closer to the islands.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
NOAA Buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the Big Island
reported a peak wind of 107 mph (172 km/h) as the northwest eyewall
of Lane passed over. The buoy is now reporting light winds in the
eye of the hurricane.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island today, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over
portions of Maui County later today, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late tonight, with hurricane conditions
expected Friday into Friday night. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess
of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands. Nearly 20 inches of rain has
already fallen on portions of the Big Island.
SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
The hurricane will eventually take another turn in its course and weather models are pointing to a turn toward the west. The faster the storm weakens the faster the westerly course develops which would mean no landfall on the islands. However if Lane stays stronger for a longer period of time, it will delay the turn to the west and the chances of the storm making a landfall on one of the Hawaiian islands will increase. We favor the idea of enough weakening to occur so that Lane responds to easterly winds and turns to the west. This would avoid a landfall but it will not prevent heavy rains and flash flooding from occurring.
For more on Hurricane Lane you can check out all the latest from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical or storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property