Hurricane Joaquin Strengthening Rapidly: Winds 105 mph Eye Forming

Reports from an Air Force plane found that Joaquim is strengthening rapidly. Maximum sustained winds are now 105 mph and the lower pressure has dropped to 954 mb. Hurricane Joaquin could become a category 3 hurricane tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

 

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
800 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS JOAQUIN STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island and Bimini

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Bimini

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but
excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

KEY MESSAGES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST DISCUSSION
areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.

2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this
afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic
states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the
forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally
excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States
east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and
includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the
Carolinas.

3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with
as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of
missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service
is launching extra balloon soundings.

4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays
well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate
coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states through the weekend.

5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as Thursday evening.

6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the
hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas
even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea.
toward the coast.

nhcprog

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