Hurricane Dorian Heading Northward Toward the Carolinas
HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST US COAST
FROM GEORGIA TO NORTH CAROLINA, TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Chincoteague, Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point, and for the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island.
Dorian has maintained strength through the day and while the satellite presentation has improved with an eye structure completely closing off, we have not seen a corresponding fall in pressure. Highest winds remain around 105 mph with the lowest pressure at 964 mb. Dorian is over the gulf stream which is a stream of very warm ocean water and wind shear is low to moderate so at the very least it will maintain strength into Thursday morning or it might increase a little tonight. However that should be it and we will see a slow weakening settle in on Thursday as Dorian straddles the Carolina shoreline.
We continue to monitor Dorian on the radars from Melbourne & Jacksonville Florida. The steady north northwest motion has now pushed it into the range of the Jacksonville radar where the eye is visible and we can see the eye wall closing. Squalls are coming into the coast but they are not penetrating that far inland at the moment.
LOCAL RADAR MELBOURNE FL
LOCAL RADAR JACKSONVILLE FL
There has been absolutely no change in the weather outlook for Dorian and that has remained consistent for several days now. Again how far north does the rain get and do the gales briefly make it to our shore line. Here is the way the NAM sees it. All the models are similar in their outlook.
A land fall somewhere in the Carolainas continues as a real risk. My thinking is somewhere over or just west of the Outer Banks seems the most likely. Weather models are showing Dorian having a big impact this weekend on Nova Scotia and New Foundland as a major post tropical cyclone that will impact Nova Scotia Saturday and New Foundland Saturday night into Sunday.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.