HRRR Model Saturday View
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HRRR MODEL SATURDAY VIEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HUNTERDON & MERCER COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY
I thought we would take an HRRR Model Saturday view of things. The HRRR model is an ultra short range model that runs every hour and has been pretty good at guiding forecasters once we hit the ultra short term. This way in the morning we can compare how the model has changed and if there are any noticeable short term trends. The radar forecast view is for 7pm Saturday evening which shows precipitation continuing over much of the area including much of Central New Jersey to New York City & Long Island.
HRRR Model Saturday View Radar 7pm Saturday
HRRR Model Saturday View Precipitation & Surface Map Saturday Evening 7pm
The second map is the total accumulated precipitation through 7pm Saturday. The heaviest amounts are in Central and Southern New Jersey and parts of Western Long Island to about New York City. The model seems to match up with the last two runs of the NAM model. The northern extent of the precipitation is limited just inland and north of the coast.
HRRR Model Saturday View Total Snowfall Through 7pm Saturday
As far as accumulated snow is concerned the HRRR model is not particularly bullish for snow through 7pm showing trace amounts to an inch in most places. Southeastern Pennsylvania and extreme Southwest New Jersey seem to get the most with an area of 3 to 6 inch amounts being indicated. Given the radar presentation it would seem that for areas north and east that there will be several more hours of rain or snow before the precipitation pulls away to the east. Now we will wait and see how this changes later this morning as this all gets underway.
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