HOT HUMID SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

Hot Humid Severe Thunderstorms

Hot Humid Severe Thunderstorms

 

Hot Humid Severe Thunderstorms

Video On NAM HRRR Models

[brid video=”52486″ player=”6390″ title=”Severe Weather Threat Friday July 8th 2016″]As we begin this Friday we are going to be watching several factors. First off is how much sunshine do we get into this afternoon to produce strong daytime heating. Temperatures are going to climb quickly through the 80s to near 90 by midday. The issue late this afternoon and evening will hinge on a warm front and where the warm sector lines up. Weather models seem to be in a state of confusing setting up a warm sector over head or just north or south of New York City which will make a huge difference and how severe weather if any develops this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a risk of severe weather from New York State southward through North Carolina with a higher risk to the west.

HOT HUMID SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST

BE SURE TO CHECK THE TIME STAMP BELOW TO MAKE SURE IT IS THE MOST RECENT FORECAST. THE MAP WILL UPDATE WHEN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PUTS OUT ITS NEW FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING. 

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The satellite loop below shows the upper air disturbance swinging out of the Great Lakes with clouds to the west. Thunderstorms will likely develop later this afternoon across Pennsylvania and then begin to move eastward by late afternoon and evening.

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HOT HUMID SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

REGIONAL RADAR

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HOT HUMID SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

LOCAL RADARS

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HRRR MODEL 5PM FRIDAY

HRRR21 HOT HUMID SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

The HRRR model at 5pm which is as far out as it was available at 1am Friday shows the beginnings of thunderstorms. This event is not likely to produce much until later in the evening. This should allow temperatures to reach into the 90s in most places for highs. We will update this later this morning and monitor the situation closely throughout the day.

As far as the weekend goes there are some indications the last front coming through Saturday will take its time getting through and some models are showing some thunderstorms for Saturday at some point. Dry air should arrive Sunday though the GFS model now seems to want to linger clouds for awhile. We will also update this as overnight models complete their run cycles.

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