HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER

HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER

HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER

WARM BUT WATCH THE WIND

One of the reasons why I do not like the spring from a work standpoint is that darn ocean. Water temperatures in the 50s and the tendency for cold fronts or frontal boundaries to set up nearby can make forecasting a nightmare. You have to deal with wild temperature ranges that can span 30 degrees or more. It can be a beach day in New Jersey and and sweatshirt day on Long Island and points north.

This Memorial Day Holiday weekend does not seem to have that sort of extreme to deal with but there is going to be a frontal boundary nearby. The question is whether that boundary will mean some showers or a thunderstorm in areas near the boundary. Also there is a question of how much (if any) cloud cover will we be dealing with. I have decided based on recent model trends that I will lean optimistic for most if not all of the weekend through I do this with a little reservation.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER GFS SATURDAY

gfs84 HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER

Saturday to me looks like the easiest day forecast wise of the holiday weekend. I think we will see no worse than a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be in the 80s. It will be cooler on Long Island by a few degrees especially at the shore but all in all it looks like a good day. The frontal boundary to the north is far enough north to keep any showers and thunderstorms away until late in the evening assuming the timing remains the same.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER GFS SUNDAY

gfs108 HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER

The boundary is weak but it might be strong enough to produce some cloud issues. South of the front through most of central and southern New Jersey it would mean a fairly decent day with sunshine and clouds and temperatures in the 80s. North of the boundary it could be cloudy to partly sunny with highs in the 70s to near 80. Im going to leave showers out of the forecast for Sunday. This is a much different look than a few day ago when models were building a big high down the coast. Now it is taking the high out to the east and it has far less impact.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER GFS MONDAY

gfs132 HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER

Monday if this is right is looking okay for most of the day. It would be very warm and humid with highs in the 80s. There would be a chance for a late day downpour or thunderstorm especially away from the coast. Most of the day would be clouds mixed with sun. The frontal boundary disappears as winds go to the west or southwest depending on where you are. For now this seems the safest way to go.

The other thing to pay attention to this weekend is a possible tropical low off the southeast coast of the US. This to me is not a big deal unless that moisture were to suddenly decide to shoot northward. Right now models rate the chances of that as low. The European model has the most pessimistic view as it brings showers from off the ocean inland and getting enhanced by a front to the west. That model has not exactly been doing well lately so we will leave that option out for the time being. But we still have to watch to see what that system does. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center regarding this.

 

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