High Risk Severe Weather Plains Marginal to Slight Risk NY NJ CT
This is the first time in two years that the Storm Prediction Center has a high risk of severe weather anywhere in the US. Today it is over an area over Western Oklahoma extending southwest into North Texas. There is a 45% probability of tornadoes in that area. You can see the amount of cloud cover over the Plains as a major late spring storm is intensifying and moving northward. Tropical air is forcing its way northward into the Plains. Cold dry air is sweeping in from the west behind the cold front. All the dynamics are there for a serious tornado outbreak in that area.
Meanwhile off the Southeast Coast of the US we have disturbed weather that is becoming somewhat better organized. There is a small window of opportunity for this to develop into a tropical or subtropical system before the window closes on Wednesday. The system will be picked up and absorbed by the frontal system moving through the Northeast US. It poses no threat except for some showers over Bermuda but it is worth noting that this is happening during the month of May which is not part of the Hurricane Season which starts officially on June 1st.
We are warming up rather quickly this afternoon with temperatures in the 80s in many locations. We are also beginning to see some showers and possible thunderstorms develop on the locat radar. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk of severe weather with a slight risk to the Northeast in New England. The slight risk area has been extended southward to the Southern New England coast and just north of Long Island. SPC is forecasting a 40 percent chance that a severe thunderstorm watch will be required later this afternoon.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
These storms should play through this evening and weather conditions will improve overnight as skies clear. Lows will be in the 50s. There are no changes in the outlook for the next 2 days with sunshine for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs both days in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.