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HERMINE GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT RUN

HERMINE GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT RUN

HERMINE GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT RUN MODEL LOOPS &

STALLS STORM OFF NEW JERSEY FOR MANY DAYS

SUGGESTS SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING EVENT

CAUTION: UNCERTAINTY EXTREMELY HIGH

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The GFS model run tonight offers a jaw dropping solution regarding Hermine. It is almost impossible to take it seriously. The implications are huge in that it loops and stalls Hermine for nearly a week east of New Jersey and south of Long Island. If this were even close to being true, the coastal flooding would be severe. However please bear this in mind Im in no way forecasting this. I am trying to digest the logic behind it all and of course we need to see what the other global models do with this.

First of with regards to Hermine at the moment the hurricane made landfall tonight over the Florida panhandle with 80 to 85 mph winds. Now it begins its move up the coast. The satellite loop  shows the offshore frontal zone with the hurricane on the southern end moving north northeast and headed for the Southeast US coastline.

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Now going forward the east part of this forecast is that Hermine will straddle the coast as a tropical storm until it emerges off North Carolina Saturday morning. Initially the storm moves northeast but then by later Sunday it comes to a grinding halt.

HERMINE GFS MODEL SATURDAY MORNING

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HERMINE GFS MODEL SATURDAY NIGHT

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HERMINE GFS MODEL GFS MODEL SUNDAY MORNING

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HERMINE GFS MODEL SUNDAY NIGHT

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HERMINE GFS MODEL MONDAY NIGHT

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HERMINE GFS MODEL TUESDAY NIGHT

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HERMINE GFS MODEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT

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HERMINE GFS MODEL THURSDAY NIGHT

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I normally don’t put up this many maps but I wanted to show the sequence beginning Saturday morning and taking us through next Thursday evening. The video above shows a looping view with an explanation. Something like this probably defies an analog to look at since this is something that certainly I have never seen before. What the model is doing aloft is that it is building a ridge on three sides of this and essentially trapping the storm in between. It would take days for the ridges on either side to break down enough and allow this to move east.

HERMINE GFS MODEL UPPER AIR MONDAY NIGHT

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I spoke to a few colleagues and we are all scratching our heads trying to grasp this model run. A quick look at the usually squirrely Canadian model has a similar idea further east and actually keeps this more of a tropical system structure as it loops and backs it westward. However it does it along 70 west which would be a much shorter and a much less severe event. At this point I would just say that lets wait for the European which on the day run did have a similar looping concept further south and west than the GFS model did. From a forecast standpoint I’m not any more or less convinced on what will transpire this weekend. Uncertainty remains incredibly high.

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