Heavy rain is coming for the evening rush hour for the New York City metro area as it moves now out of the Philadelphia metro area and Southern New Jersey and moves to the north northeast.
It took a little while for the rain to get going this morning and not all areas got the same but this next surge should even it out a bit. While some of the downpours could be heavy, the severe thunderstorm threat probably won’t be until after dark as the cold front begins it’s approach from the west. There is a snaking line of showers from Western Pennsylvania southward into West Virginia. We will watch to see if that ultimately becomes the main line of storms ahead of the cold front. The risk for severe is marginal and I think the main threat from the thunderstorms will be heavy downpours and gusty winds as they move through.
There still could be some lingering rain or showers around day break in eastern areas from New York City and coastal New Jersey east to Long Island and Connecticut but they should end shortly after that. Weather conditions should improve rather quickly with some sunshine. Temperatures tonight will rise into the 60s and Thursday we should see highs between 70 and 75. Cooler air is set to arrive Thursday night and we will probably be down in the 30s to low 40s Friday morning. Some sunshine is in the cards for Friday but it will on the cool side with highs not out of the 50s.
Looking ahead longer term into the middle of next week there are no big storm threats and it looks like things should be calm for at least a week or so. November is going to start dry with temperatures near or a little bit above normal.
We will of course keep you posted on the progress of severe weather this evening.