Growing Evidence Alaska Fishing Trip For Typhoon In Fa
Last Mid January it was a typhoon that recurved into the westerlies that set the stage for the first invasion of Arctic Air. That began nearly 8 weeks of below normal temperatures and unrelenting cold and snow for the northeast. We have been struggling with the weather models showing pattern change one run and no pattern change the next. We seem to have entered a period of variability for the second half of this month. Nothing seems to want to hold for more than a few days. That will probably continue for the rest of the month. However we do see model runs reacting to Typhoon In Fa as models all want to re-curve this typhoon and take it straight to the Gulf of Alaska.
Typhoon In Fa on the GFS develops into a fairly strong typhoon and is forecast by all the models to recurve northward and then northeastward. By day 10 the typhoon transitions into a very powerful storm in the Gulf of Alaska. Why is this important? The establishment of a deep storm in that position changes the profile of the pattern across Eastern Siberia, Alaska and North America. It opens the door to Arctic air to come into Canada and then into the United States.
This is just another variable introduced into an already complicated equation. Assuming this is correct the reaction of the GFS model. This look brings cold air into Canada and into the continental United States. However among many questions is whether this pattern holds or winds up giving way over time. That is the deeper part of the equation that remains unanswered.
The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Oscillation indicators continue to remain volatile going from negative to positive next week with mixed signals after that. The bottom line is that we continue to just watch this all evolve and now made even more complicated by Typhoon In Fa!