GFS MODEL RESPONDING TO STRONG BLOCKING DEVELOPING
Gfs model run tonight is beginning to show a response to the strong blocking that will be developing later this week. The result is a colder look on this run and it is also beginning to show the possibility of a second weather threat for January 11-13 which all the models have been signalling for days. We have been pointing out in prior posts that the key going forward will be the strength of the NAO and how the model reacts to this. Clearly the gfs model is now beginning to sense this and is adjusting accordingly.
Remember that we are still about 36 model runs before we get there! There is a long time frame here for all sorts of changes to take place. Plus we want to see how the other models respond to this. This could be a one run wonder. So it is important that these model trends continue. Too much blocking means a colder look but also a more southern track. Not enough and you have a warmer more northern track. Again this is the first of many runs and we now need to see how the other models handle all this. It should be noted again that all the models have been pointing to this idea..but we are VERY VERY EARLY IN THE GAME HERE.
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