TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE LOOKING BETTER ORGNAIZED
WEATHER MODELS SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD
WIDE ATLANTIC TROPICAL SATELLITE
Satellite loops this afternoon show that while the wind shear continues over Tropical Storm Florence it seems to have relaxed enough where the core is looking better organized and less messy than yesterday. The core of Florence remains pretty much intact from the assault of strong upper air winds. Assuming the trend of decreasing shear continues which is what models are forecasting, we should see Florence regain hurricane status in the next 24 hours or possibly sooner. The motion continues to be slowly to the west. The weakening has allowed the storm to get on a westerly course and not move poleward. Florence has passed its first hurdle.
Hurdle number 2 is the upper trough in the Northwest Atlantic. Weather models show the trough does not extend as far south as earlier modeled. Florence misses it completely on all models. Assuming that is the case, then there appears to be nothing that stands in the way of Florence and a date with the East Coast.
Weather models all show a strong ridge building off the East Coast and the European is especially strong with this feature. There is nothing upstream in the Plains or in Canada to weaken the ridge to cause a recurve. Florence would move around the periphery of that ridge which is forecast to hold for all of next week. It would seem that if this is correct the threat of a direct pass for our area lessens while the threat for a direct pass for the Southeast US coast increases. We will wait a few more runs to see if this trend continues. The ridges on the models have been coming in stronger for much of the last month. There is very little reason to think it would be different this time around.
THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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