Fighting Getting A Little Nasty On Winter Outlook
The level of frustration over the record warm weather in the northeast has reached a point where it is beginning to get nasty in some meteorological circles. Those predicting a change in the pattern are now going at it with both barrels against those who argue against a pattern. While it has not gotten out of hand (yet), JOESTRADAMUS being a rather calm and patient person wishes to step in as a voice of reason and wants everyone to take a deep breath for a moment.
First off I would like to address my readers first. Whichever side of the equation you fall on this whether it be someone who thinks 1 flake of snow is too much and 10 feet of snow is too little, meteorology and forecasting is a fluid science. It is one where we know the physics of the atmosphere. However what makes meteorology and weather different is that it is fluid. What I mean by fluid is that it is a science where the parameters you deal with are changing constantly and you as a forecaster are trying to understand and anticipate the change. Even anticipating the change isn’t good enough because when something changes, it changes something else! This makes things extra difficult and sometimes a fantastic hair pulling exercise. Its a wonder that forecasters aren’t all bald.
Where I take issue with others is on a number of levels. Firstly we should be respectful of differing opinions. There are good arguments on both sides of the equation. Let’s try to understand opposing viewpoints whatever they may be. We are all learning here. Secondly, from a practical perspective none of us know where this is all going to wind up. Open minds are required. I have tried to make the experience on my website one of a journey. To make definitive statements however broad they may be seems rather silly. I have always approached weather and forecasting as a journey. No matter how many times I’ve seen something, there is always an unanticipated outcome. To say that A +B always will equal C is not always true.
Right now the warm pattern we are in seems like it is locked solid with no chance for change. Remember however that all patterns change. All patterns be it warm or cold eventually sow the seeds of their own destruction. It is part of the cycle. If it wasn’t like that we would all either freeze to death or burn up. Eventually the pattern will change. The long term question is when and how. And remember folks, just because the pattern changes, doesn’t mean it will change into something you like. The winter will be what it will be. If it winds up being a winter where it is warm with little snow, so be it. If it winds up being another winter of unrelenting cold, so be it. If it winds up being something in between..well you get the idea. Let’s just keep moving forward and see where this all takes us. And smile everyone…its Christmas!!!!