Eye of Hurricane Joaquin over Central Bahamas: Winds 120 mph

The eye of Hurricane Joaquin is over the central Bahamas this morning with maximum sustained winds at 120 mph. Hurricane Joaquin has been moving west southwest for the last few hours and that motion should continue today. At last for a little while. The hurricane on the first morning visible pics looks very well organized. The deepening cycle from last night seems to have leveled off and the first morning visible satellite pics show a clouded over eye. There is still time for another deepening cycle to occur while conditions are favorable and the hurricane sits over super warm water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


...EYE OF JOAQUIN NEAR SAMANA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS...
...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM
SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 73.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

Overnight model runs have all trended east however there is a large range with the European leading the charge out to sea We have the overnight GFS run that ew Jersey Long Island instead of the Carolinas. Some other models are still in Virginia North Carolina. The spread is widening instead of getting closer. The longer Hurricane Joaquin stays in the Bahamas the better chance of the out to sea solution. We discussed tonight on our GFS discussion that this shift could be a trend to the out to sea European and the overnight European indeed is sticking to its guns showing a miss for the east coast. The journey continues.

Meanwhile we are experiencing noreaster conditions here with strong onshore winds that are increasing to gale force. This will produce higher than normal tides, moderate risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion regardless of what the hurricane does.

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