Disturbed Weather Across Florida Could Develop Next Few Days

We have been keeping our eye on a weakness in the upper flow that will be developing over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. This weakness will eventually saturate the Eastern US with moisture putting us in a bit of a rainy pattern. Disturbed weather has already developed over the state of Florida and it extends westward into the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

This shows up well on the tighter view over the Southeast & Gulf of Mexico. The time of year would argue against tropical or subtropical storm development however conditions aloft are not unfavorable for development. The National Hurricane Center normally doesn’t issue tropical weather outlooks until June 1st unless they deem it necessary which they have for this system.

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
Monday.

Weather models all do develop low pressure in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico which meanders around over the open waters for the next several days. At the very least this will enhance heavy rains in Florida and the Southeast US in the coming days.

All of this is related to the long range weather pattern developing in the Eastern US which looks wet for the next week or longer. JOESTRADAMUS has more on this in his long range post.