We noticed this morning that the eye was reforming on Hurricane Joaquin and the last recon reported flight level winds of 144 kts which translates to 155 mph which puts Joaquin as a borderline Category 5 hurricane. Category 5 hurricanes don’t happen to often. Back in 2005 there were 3 category 5 hurricanes in one year in the Atlantic Basin which is likely not to be repeated in a long time. The latest satellite picture shows the eye that is extremely well defined. There is still time for Joaquin to achieve Category 5 status.
The GFS makes a slight westward shift as the hurricane nears Bermuda and takes the center about 100 miles or so west of the island. This would certainly put in range of tropical storm conditions but the core of the hurricane would pass well offshore on this model’s path. But 100 miles is a very small error.
The European takes it also just left of Bermuda before both models accelerate the hurricane to the northeast. While it is out west of 65 west and on its northeast trip from there, the ocean is going to be very rough here for a few days, espeically having been roughed up by 4 days of northeast winds with our seperate noreaster event. Considering how much tidal flooding occured with no full moon, we honestly should be very thankful that Hurricane Joaquin did not get absorbed or pulled up by that trough and instead got kicked away to the northeast. Otherwise the hurricane would have devestated any shoreline it hit on its path. The next advisory by the National Hurricane Center is due out at 5pm and we will update the forecast if required to.
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