Snowfall Forecast Saturday April 9

Snowfall Forecast Saturday April 9

Snowfall Forecast Saturday April 9

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Here is my early snowfall forecast map. I decided that after looking at the models this afternoon, and without looking at the Euro model, I think this is the best that I can come up with at this point. I want to make it clear right off the bat. This is going to be a spring time convective snow. There will be EXTREMELY HIGH VARIABILITY in snowfall amounts depending on elevation, time of day and how the core of the narrow band of precipitation sets up. There will be places that will get little or nothing and within miles because of elevation, there could be places that get several inches or more. This is a lot like clustering summertime thunderstorms. Some areas get clobbered and others get nothing.

Snowfall Forecast Saturday April 9

snow Snowfall Forecast Saturday April 9

 

If we see over the next two days that the core of the upper low shifts we will have to adjust this in any and all directions. The confidence level on this forecast right now is extremely low which is unusual this late in the game. But such is the problem with forecasting a spring snow where you have strong upper features but not so strong surface features. There is no intense storm here. It is going to be dynamics driven by the track of the upper air storm.

Snowfall Forecast Saturday April 9 Track of Upper Low

gfs54 Snowfall Forecast Saturday April 9

 

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